The short version: a model estimates the probability of a draw, compares it with the market price, and we only publish when the difference is worth betting. Everything that happens next — results, profit, losses — is settled by software and published automatically.
The draw is the least loved outcome in football betting. Casual money chases winners, which means the X is where prices are most often a little wrong — and a little wrong, at odds around 3.0–3.5, is enough. We specialise in exactly one market instead of pretending to be good at all of them.
Mostly competitions outside the spotlight — second divisions and leagues where bookmaker prices move slowly and draw rates are structurally high. Big-league prices are efficient; we go where the market pays less attention.
For every candidate match the engine estimates the draw probability from historical scoring patterns. That estimate is compared with the bookmaker's price: if the expected value (model probability × odds) clears our threshold, the pick is published — with its odds, model probability and EV shown. If nothing clears the bar, we publish nothing that day. No pick is ever added to fill space.
Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. We show them so you can judge our reasoning, not because they are guaranteed to be right.
The model bankroll starts at €1,000 and follows our real staking ladder: the stake is 2.5% of the bankroll, recalculated once a week (Monday) and rounded down to a clean step — that's why stakes grow as the bankroll grows.
Results are fetched and settled automatically by software within minutes of full-time — no human edits, no quietly deleted losses. Every pick stays on the track record forever, with a link to the match so you can verify the score yourself.
The current configuration was validated on ~12,000 matches across nine independent years (2018–2026) of the target competitions: a ~35.6% draw win rate at average odds around 3.2, roughly +10% ROI, out-of-sample. The live record is young and will swing — at these odds, losing streaks of 5–8 picks are statistically normal. Judge us over months, not weeks. Past results don't guarantee future returns.
Not "sure wins", not fixed matches, not 100 predictions a day. Some days have zero picks — that's the discipline working, not the model failing. We publish a handful of value picks and track every one of them in public.