How often do matches end level?

Name: Football draw rates by league
Creator: Just Draws
License: https://justdraws.net/draw-rates

Draw frequency in 20 leagues, measured over 11,007 matches. Most of these competitions have no English-language coverage at all, so the numbers below are hard to find anywhere else. Alongside each one is the median price the market put on the draw, which is what you would have to beat.

Overall, 3,379 of those matches finished level — 30.7%. For comparison, the big five European leagues sit closer to 24%.

League	Country	Matches	Draws	Draw rate	Median draw odds	Implied by price
Azadegan League	Iran	227	82	36.1%	@2.75	36.4%
Iran Pro League	Iran	756	272	36%	@2.88	34.7%
Botola 2	Morocco	322	116	36%	@2.79	35.8%
Primera C Metropolitana	Argentina	318	114	35.8%	@2.8	35.7%
Ethiopian Premier League	Ethiopia	631	225	35.7%	@2.8	35.7%
Egyptian Premier League	Egypt	949	326	34.4%	@2.95	33.9%
Primera B	Argentina	315	106	33.7%	@2.8	35.7%
Primera B Metropolitana	Argentina	653	220	33.7%	@2.98	33.6%
Botola Pro	Morocco	922	308	33.4%	@2.95	34%
Liga Nacional	Honduras	82	27	32.9%	@3.36	29.8%
Serie B	Italy	1,182	387	32.7%	@3.1	32.3%
Mocambola	Mozambique	90	28	31.1%	@2.94	34%
K League 2	South Korea	677	193	28.5%	@3.2	31.2%
Ligue 1	Tunisia	556	157	28.2%	@3	33.3%
Division Intermedia	Paraguay	325	91	28%	@3.1	32.3%
Stars League	Iraq	311	87	28%	@3.1	32.3%
Super League	Uzbekistan	535	139	26%	@3.35	29.9%
Premier League	Kazakhstan	655	161	24.6%	@3.3	30.3%
Eredivisie	Netherlands	907	207	22.8%	@3.95	25.3%
Premier Division	Ireland	594	133	22.4%	@3.5	28.6%

How to read this

Draw rate is simply how often the match finished level, over every match in the sample. It is not a prediction of anything.
Median draw odds is the middle price bookmakers offered on the draw, excluding the 1xBet family to avoid double-counting the same price. Implied by price converts that odd into a percentage.
Where the draw rate sits above the implied percentage, the market was, on average, paying more than the outcome deserved over this sample. That gap is small and it is not free money — bookmaker margin, timing and your own price all eat into it.
Sample: matches for which we hold odds from at least two bookmakers, 2015–2026. It is not every match ever played in these competitions, and seasons are unevenly covered.

We bet the draw in some of these leagues

Every pick published before kick-off with the odds taken, and settled in public afterwards — winners and losers.

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